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Agentic Engineering

ROI Frameworks and Realistic Expectations

The marketing says 10x. The reality is more nuanced. Here’s how to think about returns—and set expectations that survive contact with reality.

The productivity claim landscape

Section titled “The productivity claim landscape”

Vendors claim:

  • “10x developer productivity”
  • “Replace half your engineering team”
  • “Ship in days what used to take months”

Research shows:

  • 10-30% improvement in task completion time
  • Higher satisfaction among developers
  • Significant variation by task type and individual

The gap between claims and evidence is worth understanding.

Where gains actually come from

Section titled “Where gains actually come from”

Direct productivity

Section titled “Direct productivity”

Time savings on specific tasks:

  • Boilerplate generation: 50-80% faster
  • Test writing: 30-50% faster
  • Documentation: 40-60% faster
  • Bug fixes with clear repro: 20-40% faster

Complex implementation: Minimal measurable improvement, sometimes negative (time spent prompting > time saved).

Indirect benefits

Section titled “Indirect benefits”

Capability expansion: Engineers tackle tasks they wouldn’t have attempted.

Onboarding acceleration: New hires reach productivity faster with agent assistance.

Knowledge democratization: Junior developers access expertise embedded in AI training.

Developer satisfaction: People often prefer agent-assisted work (though not universally).

What doesn’t change

Section titled “What doesn’t change”

Architecture decisions: Still human. Complex debugging: Often slower with agents. Domain expertise: Can’t be delegated. Integration work: High-context, agent-hostile.

Building an ROI model

Section titled “Building an ROI model”

Costs

Section titled “Costs”

Tool costs:

  • Per-seat licensing
  • API usage (for custom solutions)
  • Infrastructure for self-hosted options

Adoption costs:

  • Training time
  • Process change management
  • Initial productivity dip

Oversight costs:

  • Additional code review time
  • Security review requirements
  • Quality assurance expansion

Benefits

Section titled “Benefits”

Time savings:

  • Engineer hours × improvement % × adoption rate
  • Be conservative: assume 15-20% improvement on applicable tasks

Quality improvements:

  • Reduced bugs? (Data unclear—may go either direction)
  • Better documentation? (Usually yes)
  • Higher test coverage? (Usually yes, if prioritized)

Capability gains:

  • New projects possible with existing headcount
  • Faster exploration and prototyping
  • Competitive responsiveness

The honest math

Section titled “The honest math”

For a 50-person engineering team:

  • Tool cost: ~$500-2000/seat/year = $25k-100k annually
  • Adoption investment: 20-40 hours/person = $200-400k one-time equivalent
  • Realistic productivity gain: 15% on 60% of work = 9% overall
  • Value of 9% on $10M engineering spend = $900k

Payback period: 3-12 months depending on assumptions.

Not transformational. But clearly positive.

Setting expectations

Section titled “Setting expectations”

What to tell the board

Section titled “What to tell the board”

“We expect 10-30% productivity improvement on applicable tasks, translating to single-digit overall efficiency gains. More importantly, we’re building capability for a future where these tools are essential.”

What to tell engineering

Section titled “What to tell engineering”

“Start using these tools where they help. Don’t force it where they don’t. We’re investing in learning, not mandating universal adoption.”

What to tell yourself

Section titled “What to tell yourself”

“This is a capability investment, not a cost-cutting exercise. The real value emerges over 2-3 years as the technology improves and our skills compound.”

Warning signs in ROI projections

Section titled “Warning signs in ROI projections”

Be skeptical of projections that:

  • Assume universal adoption
  • Use vendor productivity claims without adjustment
  • Ignore adoption costs
  • Assume immediate full benefit without learning curve
  • Don’t account for tasks where agents don’t help

Resources

Section titled “Resources”

Essential

Section titled “Essential”